GMPE compendium by Dr John Douglas, senior lecturer and seismic-hazard consultant in Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Strathclyde, UK.

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), also called ground-motion models (GMMs) and attenuation relations, estimate the shaking (strong ground motion) that may occur at a site if an earthquake of a certain magnitude occurs at a nearby location. GMPEs are crucial for engineering seismology and earthquake engineering (branches of civil engineering) as they are used to assess seismic hazard, thereby providing estimates of the loading that a structure may undergo during a future earthquake.

This compendium provides details of models for the intensity measures (IMs) of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and linear elastic response spectral ordinates (acceleration, velocity and displacement). It also provides brief characteristics of models for: peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD), Arias intensity (AI), cumulative absolute velocity (CAV), Fourier spectral amplitudes (FSA), maximum absolute unit elastic input energy (IE), inelastic response spectral ordinates (ISO), Japanese Meterological Agency (JMA) seismic intensity, macroseismic intensity (MI, also called intensity prediction equations), mean period (MP), relative significant duration (RSD) and vertical-to-horizontal response spectral ratio (VH). The focus is on empirical GMPEs, i.e. those derived from recorded strong-motion data, but lists are provided of simulation-based GMPEs as well as models derived in other ways (e.g. hybrid and backbone). GMPEs for both natural (crustal and subduction) and induced/triggered earthquakes are included.

Review articles based on this compendium were published in Earth-Science Reviews in 2003 and 2016. Read a general review of ground-motion prediction.

Read recent open-access article on "Cost-benefit analyses to assess the potential of Operational Earthquake Forecasting prior to a mainshock in Europe"

Download the compendium in PDF or View online (using mathjax so slow to load). Last updated 1 October 2020 (2020 empirical models not yet included)

Please contact me if a model is missing or if you find an error. Thank you.

Download these figures and other introductory material (e.g. some nomograms) on engineering seismology, with citable DOIs.

View a presentation on "Recent and Future Developments in Earthquake Ground Motion Estimation" given at the SECED evening meeting of 25 May 2016.

Download various GMPE-related datasets and the program CHEEP (Composite Hybrid Equation Estimation Program), developed in 2006.

Creative Commons License
Ground motion prediction equations (1964-2020) is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.