- Ground-motion model is: where Y is in m∕s2, Rref = 1, Mref = 4.5 and Mh = 6.5 (slightly higher than value suggested by
data, 6–6.2 to move change of magnitude-scaling to above controlling earthquake scenario in hazard
calculations); e1 = 0.635138, b1 = 1.241105, b2 = -0.13181, b3 = -0.32192, c1 = -0.93085, c2 = 0.143762,
c3 = -0.01088, h = 3.875582, sA = -0.60915, τ = 0.495337 (inter-event) and ϕ = 0.631336 (intra-event)
for model using rjb; e1 = 1.494544, b1 = 1.514441, b2 = -0.09357, b3 = 0.332407, c1 = -1.15213,
c2 = 0.091751, c3 = -0.00930, sA = -0.61492, τ = 0.501564 (inter-event) and ϕ = 0.637574 (intra-event)
for model using rhypo.
- Use V s,30 to characterise sites (16th, 50th and 84th percentiles of data are 393m∕s, 511 and 786m∕s). Only
use data from sites with V s,30 ≥ 360m∕s since focus is on prediction for stiff site conditions and to exclude
sites behaving nonlinearly.
- Use few input parameters because of lack of information on, e.g., hanging/foot wall in Germany (the focus
for the application of the model), and because hazard in application computed for V s,30 = 800m∕s so basin
effects and soil nonlinearity can be neglected.
- Develop models using rjb and rhypo so that they can be used both for fault and area sources.
- As model will be applied in Germany, particularly focus on predictions in 5.5 ≤ Mw ≤ 6.
- Do not recommend model for Mw > 7.4 or for long return periods (because of relatively high σ).
- Data from 1025 different stations.
- Do not include style-of-faulting terms because not justified using AIC analysis.
- Most data from Mw ≤ 5.5 and rhypo ≥ 20km.
- Report the variance-covariance matrix of the model, which use to assess epistemic uncertainty in the
- Compare predictions and observations for bins Mw4 ± 0.25 and Mw6.7 ± 0.25 and find good fit.
- Examine residuals w.r.t. rhypo (intra-event) and Mw (inter-event) and find no trends. Compute average
bias w.r.t. 3 style-of-faulting classes (normal, strike-slip and reverse) and find slight (but not significant)
evidence that model overpredicts motions from normal-faulting events.